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Interdependent Dynamics of Food, Energy and Water in Kazakhstan and Mongolia: Connecting LULCC to the Transitional Socioecological Systems
Project Start Date
01/12/2020
Project End Date
05/14/2024
Grant Number
80NSSC20K0410
Solicitation
default

Team Members:

Person Name Person role on project Affiliation
Jiquan Chen Principal Investigator Michigan State University, East Lansing, US
Jinhua Zhao Co-Investigator Michigan State University, East Lansing, USA
Ranjeet John Co-Investigator University of South Dakota, Vermillion, US
Amarjargal Amartuvshin Collaborator Business School, University of the Humanities, Ulanbator, Mongolia
Ochirbat Batkhishig Collaborator
Abstract

This study is proposed to examine the interconnections of food, energy and water (FEW), as well as their interdependent dynamics under the rapid changes in climate and intensified land use in Kazakhstan (KaZ) and Mongolia (MG) over a 40-year period (1981-2020). We will apply the concept, principles and methods of socioeconomic-ecological systems to guide our research at three hierarchical levels: local, provincial and national. Net primary production, albedo, and evapotranspiration will be used as the key indicators for food production, radiation energy, and water balance, respectively, of the rangelands that support continued increases in economies, livestock, agriculture, and human development. Our premise is that the interconnections and interdependencies of FEW measures vary significantly between KaZ and MG, among the provinces within each country, and among the herding landscapes. Four mechanisms will be examined to test three specific hypotheses: socioeconomic, biophysical, institutional, and a localized regulative mechanism. At national and provincial levels, we will take a macro-ecosystem and macroeconomic approach to examine the interdependencies of NPP, albedo, ET, LSK, and their spatiotemporal relationships (Task 1). A hierarchical Bayesian Structural Equation Model (HB-SEM) and modern econometric models will be used as our primary tools to model the complex data from a variety of remote sensing products and available socioeconomic databases. At the provincial level, we propose an innovative downscaling model generate 30-m resolution FEW measures from the coarse resolution MODIS/AVHHR products to explore the direct consequences of LCLUC (Task 2). Three provinces from each country will be studied by treating counties as the sampling units for HB-SEM. At local herding landscapes, we will apply conventional ecosystem and microeconomic methods to explore the direct impacts of herding practices on FEW measures through manipulative experiments (Task 3). We aim to identify the direct connections between land use practices and FEW measures. Our premise is that herders who are well informed about the local climate, the landscape, market accessibility, and other knowledge/information would conduct their practices more effectively than those without. This information/knowledge, consequently, will improve both their family’s livelihood and FEW functions. The experiment will be conducted in the Almaty and Tov provinces through comparing the changes in FEW measures of the two experimental herder groups. Our experiment will be stratified into four counties in each province, with 12 herders per county to be studied. We will provide timely “knowledge & information” to half of the selected herders, while the other half will continue “business as usual”. Two animals from each herding family (total = 96*2) will be randomly selected for movement tracking by installing a GPS collar. Intensive field campaigns, monitoring stations, and large scale household surveys (up to 600) will be organized through applications of UAS, GPS tracking, ground sampling of the herding landscapes, and household surveys. We aim to advance FEW science by focusing on the interactions and feedbacks of major FEW functions and drivers through examining their exogenous processes and underlying mechanisms.  Data will be distributed via our project website (which will be hyperlinked to NEFI and LCLUC webpages) along with sufficient metadata to describe the locations and methods. Our data management and access plan will be posted alongside our data both to make our procedures clearer, as well as to provide a contribution to the developing field of data science and informatics. We have organized a vibrant, multi-expertise team that has knowledge and experience in the region. Our well-established working relationships in KaZ and MG and available facilities/equipment will ensure the success of this project despite the multi-national nature of the collaboration.

Project Research Area

Project Documents

Year Authors Type Title
2022 Publications Fan, P., M. S. Cho, Z. Lin, Z. Ouyang, J. Qi, J. Chen, and E. Moran. Recently constructed hydropower dams had a negative impact on economy, population, and greenness in nearby areas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2108038119
2022 Publications Wu, S.R., X., Liu, L., Wang, J. Chen, P. Zhou, and C. Shao. 2022. Integrating life cycle assessment into landscape studies: a postcard from Hulunbuir. Landscape Ecology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01396-3
2022 Publications Chen, J., G. Dong, J. Chen, S. Jiang, L. Qu, T. G. Legesse, F. Zhao, Q. Tong, C. Shao, X. Han. 2022. Energy balance and partitioning over grasslands on the Mongolian Plateau. Ecological Indicators 135, 108560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108560
2022 Jiquan Chen Ranjeet John Publications Chen J., John R., Yuan J., Mack E.A., Groisman, P., Allington G., Wu J., Fan P., de Beurs K.M., Karnieli A., Gutman G., Kappas M., Dong G., Zhao F., Ouyang Z., Pearson A.A., Şat B., Graham N.A, Shao C., Graham A.K., Henebry G.M., Xue Z., Amartuvshin A., Qu L., Park H., Xin X., Chen J., Tian L., Knight C., Kussainova M., Li F., Furst, C., Qi J., Sustainability Challenges for the Social-Environmental Systems across the Asian Drylands Belt. Environmental Research Letters, 17 023001; DOI https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac472f
2022 Publications Zou, H.; Chen, J.; Shao, C.; Dong, G.; Duan, M.; Zhu, Q.; Li, X. Model Selection for Ecosystem Respiration Needs to Be Site Specific: Lessons from Grasslands on the Mongolian Plateau. Land 2022, 11, 87. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11010087
2021 Jiquan Chen Peilei Fan Publications Chen, J., Park, H., Fan, P., Tian, L., Ouyang, Z., & Lafortezza, R. (2021). Cultural Landmarks and Urban Landscapes in Three Contrasting Societies. Sustainability, 13(8), 4295.
2021 Publications Tian, L. and J. Chen. 2021. Urban expansion inferenced by ecosystem production on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Environmental Research Letters https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3178
2021 Publications Bao, G., Jin, H., Tong, S., Chen, J., Huang, X., Bao, Y., ... & Du, L. (2021). Autumn phenology and its covariation with climate, spring phenology and annual peak growth on the Mongolian plateau. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 298, 108312.
2021 Publications Dong, G., F. Zhao, J. Chen, L. Qu, S. Jiang, J. Chen, X. Xin, and C. Shao. 2021. Land uses changed the dynamics and controls of carbon-water exchanges in alkali-saline Songnen Plain of northeast China. Ecological Indicators 133: 108353, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108353
2021 Amarjargal Amartuvshin Jiquan Chen Publications Amartuvshin, A., Chen, J., John, R., Zhang, Y., & Lkhagvaa, D. (2021). How does mining policy affect rural migration of Mongolia?. Land Use Policy, 107, 105474.
2021 Publications Dong, G., Zhao, F., Chen, J., Qu, L., Jiang, S., Chen, J., & Shao, C. (2021). Divergent forcing of water use efficiency from aridity in two meadows of the Mongolian Plateau. Journal of Hydrology, 593, 125799.
2021 Jiquan Chen Ranjeet John Publications Chen, J.; John, R.; Shao, C.; Ouyang, Z.; Mack, E.A.; Henebry, G.M.; Dong, G.; Allington, G.R.H.; Pearson, A.L.; Zhao, F.; Roy, D.P.; Fan, P.; Shirkey, G.E.; Tian, L.; Kussainova, M.; Chen, J.; Reed, D.E.; Abraha, M. Towards a Single Integrative Metric on the Dynamics of Social-Environmental Systems. Sustainability 2021, 13, 11246. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132011246
2020 Geoffrey Henebry Nathan Moore Publications Henebry, G. M., Moore, N. J., & Chen, J. (2020). Land-atmosphere Interactions. Oxford University Press
2020 Publications Xu, Y., Zhang, Y., & Chen, J. (2021). Migration under economic transition and changing climate in Mongolia. Journal of Arid Environments, 185, 104333.
2020 Garik Gutman Geoffrey Henebry Publications Gutman, G., Chen, J., Henebry, G. M., & Kappas, M. (Eds.). (2020). Landscape dynamics of drylands across Greater Central Asia: People, societies and ecosystems (Vol. 17). Springer Nature
2020 Publications Wen, H., Chen, J., & Wang, Z. (2020). Disproportioned performances of protected areas in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Sustainability, 12(16), 6404
2020 Publications Dong, G., Zhao, F., Chen, J., Zhang, Y., Qu, L., Jiang, S., ... & Shao, C. (2020). Non-climatic component provoked substantial spatiotemporal changes of carbon and water use efficiency on the Mongolian Plateau. Environmental Research Letters, 15(9), 095009
2020 Publications Liang, M., Smith, N. G., Chen, J., Wu, Y., Guo, Z., Gornish, E. S., & Liang, C. (2021). Shifts in plant composition mediate grazing effects on carbon cycling in grasslands. Journal of Applied Ecology, 58(3), 518-527
2020 Publications Jin, H., Bao, G., Chen, J., Chopping, M., Jin, E., Mandakh, U., ... & Vandansambuu, B. (2020). Modifying the maximal light-use efficiency for enhancing predictions of vegetation net primary productivity on the Mongolian Plateau. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 41(10), 3740-3760.