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The Role of Land-Cover Change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia in Altering Regional Hydrological Processes Under a Changing Climate
Project Start Date
01/01/2004
Project End Date
01/01/2007
Project Call Name
Regional_Initiative_Name
Solicitation
default

Team Members:

Person Name Person role on project Affiliation
Jefferson Fox Principal Investigator East-West Center, Honolulu, US
Abstract

MMSEA is experiencing major land-use change as subsistence farmers transition from shifting cultivation, which tends to maintain large areas of secondary forest, to commercial agriculture. Rubber is the major commercial crop replacing secondary forests, a direct result of strong market demands from China. Under a previous grant from NASA we documented that the timing and amount of water use by rubber during the dry season differs dramatically from that of secondary forest and traditional agriculture in the region. Others have shown that conversion of forest to plantation agriculture in other regions results in significant changes in stored carbon. Our objectives are to determine how the conversion from existing land covers to rubber affects local energy, water, and carbon fluxes, how extensive rubber will become in MMSEA, and what the consequences will be for regional hydrology and carbon sequestration. To characterize the extent of rubber in MMSEA, we will develop land-cover/use (LCLU) time-series maps for emerging, rubber-growing sites in MMSEA using knowledge-based classification of multi-sensor, multi-date remotely sensed imagery with a focus on identifying rubber cultivation as a distinct land use among forests, grasslands and other types of agriculture. Expansion of rubber to 2050 will be simulated by combining a regional suitability model for rubber with a dynamic, spatially-explicit, land cover/use change (LCLUC) model. We will use eddy covariance to measure water and carbon fluxes over rubber and secondary vegetation. The Ecosystem Demography model, parameterized by satellite-derived LCLU and observations of stand characteristics, including ground-based LiDAR, and calibrated by flux measurements, will be used to develop spatially-distributed estimates of water and carbon fluxes throughout MMSEA. This proposal is directly responsive to the goals stated in the NRA "to further understanding of the consequences of LCLUC on the carbon and water cycles" and directly relevant to the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study.

Project Documents

Year Authors Type Title
2016 Thomas Giambelluca Alan Ziegler Publications Giambelluca, T.W., R.G. Mudd, W. Liu, A.D. Ziegler, N. Kobayashi, T. Kumagai, Y. Miyazawa, T. K. Lim, M. Huang, J. Fox, S. Yin, S. V. Mak, P. Kasemsap. 2016. Evapotranspiration of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) cultivated at two plantation sites in Southeast Asia. Water Resources Journal. DOI: 10.1002/2015WR017755
2015 Alan Ziegler Jefferson Fox Publications Kumagai, T., R.G. Mudd, T. Giambelluca, N. Kobayashi, Y. Miyazawa, T. K. Lim, W. Liu, M. Huang, J. Fox, A. Ziegler, S. Yin, S. V. Mak, P. Kasemsap. 2015. How do rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) plantations behave under seasonal water stress in northeastern Thailand and central Cambodia? Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 213: 10-22.
2014 Jefferson Fox Publications Fox, J. 2014. The production of forests: Tree cover transitions in Northern Thailand, Northern Laos, and Southern China. In Hecht, S., K. Morrison, and C. Padoch (Eds). The Social Life of Forests. University of Chicago Press. Chicago.
2014 Jefferson Fox John Vogler Publications Fox, J., J. B. Vogler, O.L. Sen, A. L. Ziegler and T. W. Giambelluca. 2014. Regional Scenarios and Simulated Land-Cover Changes in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia. In A. K. Braimoh, and H.Q. He (Eds). Vulnerability of Land Systems in Asia. John Wiley & Sons
2014 Publications Finucane, M., J. Fox, S. Saksena, and J. Spencer. 2014. A conceptual framework for analzing social-ecological models of emerging infectious disease. In Manfredo, M., A. Rechkemmer and J. Vaske (Eds). Understanding Society and Natural Resources: Forging new Strands of Integration Across the Social Sciences. New York: Springer.
2013 Publications Lestrelin, G., J.C. Castella, and J. Fox. 2013. Forest transitions in Southeast Asia: Synergies and shortcomings in land-change science and political ecology. In C. Brannstrom and J. M. Vadjunec (Eds). Land Change Science, Political Ecology, and Sustainability Science: Synergies and Divergences. Earthscan/Routledge.
2012 Jefferson Fox John Vogler Publications Fox, J., J.B. Vogler, O.L. Sen, T. Giambelluca, and A. Ziegler. 2012. Simulating land-cover change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia. Environmental Management 49 (4): 968- 979. http:/dx.DOI 10.1007/s00267-012-9828-3.
2012 Alan Ziegler Jefferson Fox Publications Ziegler, A.D., J. Phelps, J.Q. Yuen, E.L. Webb, D. Lawrence, J.M. Fox, T.B. Bruun, S.J. Leisz, C. Ryan, W. Dressler, O. Mertz, U. Pascual, C. Padoch, L.P. Koh . 2012. Carbon outcomes of major land-cover transitions in SE Asia: Great uncertainties and REDD+ policy implications. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02747.x
2012 Publications Sen, O.L., D. Bozkurt, J.B. Vogler, J. Fox, T.W. Giambelluca and A.D. Ziegler. 2012. Hydro- climatic effects of future land-cover and land-use change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia. Climate Change. DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0632-0
2011 Publications Evans, T.P., K. Phanvilay, J. Fox, and J. Vogler. 2011. An agent-based model of agricultural innovation, land-cover change and household inequality: the transition from swidden cultivation to rubber plantations in Laos PDR. Journal of Land Use Science.
2010 Maite Guardiola-Claramonte Jefferson Fox Publications Guardiola-Claramonte, M., J. Fox, T. Giambelluca, and P. Troch. 2010. Changing Land Use in the Golden Triangle: Where the Rubber Meets the Road. J. Roumasset, K. Burnett, and A. Balisacan (eds.) Sustainability Science for Watershed Landscapes. Singapore: ISEAS Publishing.